The Price of Gold in 2026: When Markets, Politics and Emotions Collide

Gold has always been a safe haven in uncertain times. But in today's world, understanding its price requires looking beyond interest rates, inflation and traditional economic indicators.

As someone who works in the buying and selling of gold and jewellery every day, there is one question I hear constantly from customers:

"Elad, what do you think will happen to the price of gold? Will it go up or down?"

I hear the same question about silver.

It is a perfectly reasonable question. If you are considering selling your gold jewellery, you naturally want to know whether waiting a few weeks or months might result in a better price.

I ask myself similar questions. Through my work, I am also part of professional WhatsApp groups where gold dealers, traders and industry colleagues exchange opinions, discuss market developments and sometimes disagree quite passionately about what comes next.

But lately, I have noticed something particularly interesting.

The conversations are no longer exclusively about interest rates, central bank purchases or inflation. Increasingly, they revolve around political decisions, individual personalities and the possibility that a single person could dramatically change the direction of the market.

The US midterm elections in November 2026 provide a fascinating example of this shift.

And they raise an important question: how do we make sense of the price of gold when so much of the market seems to depend on expectations, emotions and political uncertainty?

1. The Traditional Factors That Influence Gold

Before discussing politics, it is worth understanding the fundamentals.

Gold has historically been influenced by several important economic factors.

Interest rates

Gold does not generate interest. Unlike a bank deposit or a government bond, holding physical gold does not provide a regular financial return.

When interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold may decrease. Investors may become more interested in gold if the returns available from deposits and other interest-bearing assets become less attractive.

When interest rates rise, the opposite can happen.

However, the relationship is not automatic. What matters is often the market's expectation of future interest rates, rather than simply the current rate.

Inflation and purchasing power

Gold is often viewed as a way to preserve purchasing power over the long term.

When investors become concerned that inflation may erode the value of currencies, some turn to gold as a store of value.

But gold is not a guaranteed inflation hedge over every period. Its price can fall even when inflation remains elevated.

Geopolitical uncertainty

Wars, political instability and international tensions can increase demand for assets perceived as safe havens.

Gold has traditionally benefited from this type of uncertainty.

When investors become concerned about the stability of financial markets, currencies or governments, gold can become an attractive alternative.

Central bank purchases

Central banks are also important participants in the gold market.

When central banks increase their gold reserves, they can contribute to demand and reinforce the perception of gold as a strategic reserve asset.

In recent years, central bank demand has become an important part of the broader gold market discussion.

These factors remain relevant. But they do not always explain the full picture.

And this is where things become particularly interesting.

2. The November 2026 US Midterm Elections: A Market Moving on Expectations

On 3 November 2026, Americans went to the polls for the US midterm elections.

The results, which became clearer on 4 November, delivered a significant political shift, with Democrats securing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The implications for President Donald Trump's remaining two years in office were immediate.

Markets began reassessing what the election results could mean for government spending, regulation, economic growth and the administration's ability to implement its policies.

Gold responded sharply.

According to Reuters, spot gold rose by more than 2% during trading on 4 November, supported by a weaker US dollar and changing expectations surrounding the political and economic outlook. Silver and other precious metals also recorded gains.

But what I find particularly interesting is not simply the price movement.

It is the conversation that surrounds it.

In the professional groups I follow, discussions about gold increasingly revolve around the behaviour of one individual: the President of the United States.

Will he accept the election results calmly?

Will he respond with aggressive political or economic decisions?

Will the administration become more confrontational?

Could the political situation lead to greater geopolitical instability?

These are the kinds of questions that have increasingly entered discussions among people who work in the gold trade.

Of course, the US President does not control the gold price.

The Federal Reserve, global investors, central banks, economic data, geopolitical developments and currency markets all play significant roles.

Yet the perception that a single political figure can dramatically influence the direction of the market has become a powerful force in itself.

And in financial markets, expectations can sometimes move prices before the underlying events actually occur.

3. When Emotion Becomes an Economic Factor

One of the most fascinating aspects of gold is that it is not simply a commodity.

It is also an emotional asset.

People buy gold because they are afraid.

They buy it because they are uncertain about the future.

They buy it because they distrust currencies, governments or financial institutions.

And sometimes, they buy it because everyone around them seems to be buying it.

This creates a complicated dynamic.

Imagine a situation in which investors believe that a political leader may take unpredictable actions.

Even before anything happens, some investors may begin purchasing gold as protection.

That additional demand can push prices higher.

The higher price may then attract more attention, encouraging other investors to buy.

At some point, the market may begin responding not only to the original political event, but also to the emotions and expectations created by the reaction itself.

This is one reason why forecasting gold can be so difficult.

A market can move because of what people believe might happen, even when the event itself has not yet occurred.

The reverse is also possible.

If investors suddenly become more confident, geopolitical tensions ease or expectations change, demand for gold may weaken.

The same emotional forces that push prices higher can also contribute to sharp declines.

4. Why Professional Gold Dealers Can Disagree So Strongly

One of the things I enjoy about being part of the gold trade is the opportunity to exchange views with colleagues.

These discussions can be extremely insightful.

But they can also be surprisingly emotional.

One person may believe that gold has significant room to rise because political uncertainty is increasing.

Another may argue that the market has already priced in too much uncertainty and that a correction is more likely.

Someone else may point to interest rates, the dollar or the historical behaviour of gold towards the end of the year.

And all of them may have reasonable arguments.

This is something customers should understand.

Even people who work with gold every day, who follow the markets closely and who have years of experience, can disagree about what happens next.

The reason is simple: the future price of gold depends on variables that are difficult to predict.

Some are measurable.

Others are political, psychological or dependent on events that have not yet occurred.

And when those factors interact, even the most sophisticated analysis can be wrong.

I have learned that being involved in the gold business does not mean being able to predict the future.

It means understanding the market, recognising the risks and making decisions based on the information available at the time.

5. Gold and Silver: Similar, but Not the Same

Customers often ask me about gold and silver in the same conversation.

Although both are precious metals, their markets are different.

Gold is strongly influenced by investment demand, central bank purchases, currency movements and geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver is also a precious metal, but it has a much larger industrial component.

It is used in electronics, solar panels, electrical applications and other industrial processes.

This means that silver can respond differently to changes in the global economy.

A period of strong industrial growth may support silver demand.

But concerns about a slowdown in manufacturing or industrial activity can place pressure on silver, even when gold is performing well.

Silver can also be more volatile than gold.

For someone considering selling silver jewellery, this is an important distinction.

The two metals should not automatically be expected to move together.

6. What Does This Mean for Someone Selling Gold in Singapore?

This is perhaps the most practical question.

If you own gold jewellery and are considering selling it, should you wait?

Should you sell now?

Should you wait for the next political development or the next interest rate decision?

Unfortunately, there is no universal answer.

The right decision depends on your circumstances, your expectations and how much uncertainty you are comfortable accepting.

However, there are a few important things I would encourage every gold seller in Singapore to understand.

First, gold is traded internationally, but your selling price is local.

The international gold price is generally quoted in US dollars per troy ounce.

In Singapore, the value of your gold jewellery is also influenced by the USD/SGD exchange rate.

A change in the international gold price does not necessarily translate into an identical change in the local value of your jewellery.

Second, the purity of your gold matters.

A 24-karat gold item contains a higher proportion of gold than an 18-karat or 14-karat item.

The weight and purity of your jewellery are fundamental to determining its underlying gold value.

Third, the price of your jewellery is not necessarily the same as the international spot price.

When selling jewellery, the actual offer may depend on the net gold weight, purity, the buyer's pricing methodology and any applicable refining or processing costs.

A professional evaluation should make these factors clear.

Finally, you do not need to predict the market perfectly.

If you are selling gold because you need the money, are clearing jewellery you no longer wear or simply feel that the current price is attractive, those are legitimate reasons to sell.

Waiting for a higher price is also a choice.

But it involves uncertainty.

The most important thing is to understand the offer you receive and make a decision that suits your own needs.

7. The Question I Am Asked Most Often: Will Gold Go Up or Down?

My honest answer is that I do not know.

And I believe anyone who claims to know with absolute certainty should be approached with caution.

Gold could rise if geopolitical uncertainty intensifies, if the dollar weakens or if expectations around interest rates become more favourable.

It could fall if investors become more confident, interest rates remain elevated or demand for safe-haven assets declines.

It could also move sharply in either direction because of political developments that are difficult to anticipate.

The November 2026 US midterm elections are a good example of how quickly expectations can change.

But one event does not establish a long-term trend.

The market reaction of a single day cannot tell us with certainty what gold will be worth next month, next year or at the end of 2027.

This is why I prefer to focus on what we can actually evaluate: the current market, the quality and purity of the gold, the transparency of the transaction and the needs of the customer.

A Final Thought: Understanding the Market Is More Valuable Than Predicting It

Gold has been valued for thousands of years.

It has survived wars, economic crises, changes in governments and countless shifts in the global financial system.

Its role in the modern economy continues to evolve.

Today, its price reflects not only the traditional economic forces we have studied for decades, but also the expectations, emotions and political uncertainties of an increasingly interconnected world.

The November 2026 US midterm elections are a timely reminder of just how quickly those expectations can change.

For customers in Singapore who are considering selling their gold, my advice is straightforward.

Do not make a decision based entirely on a prediction.

Understand the value of what you own.

Ask how the offer is calculated.

Compare offers where appropriate.

And remember that the best decision is not necessarily the one that captures the highest possible market price.

It is the one that makes sense for your own circumstances.

At SellYourJewellery, we believe that a good transaction begins with transparency.

Whether you are selling a single gold ring, an inherited collection or jewellery you have not worn in years, you deserve a clear explanation of its value and a professional evaluation.

Because in a market where even experienced professionals cannot predict every movement, understanding the transaction in front of you is one of the most valuable things you can have.

Elad Kirschberg

Managing Director, Dianoche Singapore

SellYourJewellery

This article reflects personal observations and professional experience in the gold and jewellery trade. It is intended for general educational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

Sources

1. Reuters. (November 4, 2026). Gold rises following the US midterm elections and a weaker US dollar.
2. Associated Press. (November 4, 2026). US midterm election results and their political implications.